India and Pakistan, a classic "Richardson" Arms Race: A Genetic Algorithmic approach

The mid-1998 troubles between India and Pakistan are used to demonstrate that a realvalued Genetic Algorithm (GA) can find workable solutions to Richardson’s Theory of Arms Races. This theory, developed in the late 1940s, needs such a big search space that it was never very useful — until the arrival of GAs. Rough ‘starter’ values for the rate-constants in Richardson’s equations are gleaned from International Monetary Fund statistics. The resulting GA found, first, that very small changes in percentage defence expenditure made all the difference between stability and instability; second, that although there are dangerous pockets of potential instability in the developing arms race, nevertheless there are large areas of stability as well; and third, that it is possible to predict when instabilities will occur. Properly refined, such predictions could give early warning of ‘flashpoints’ and might even be used to prevent an arms race from escalating into open war. The conclusion includes comments on the practicalities of using GAs in this type of application.